Behavioral Consequences of Probabilistic Precision: Experimental Evidence from National Security Professionals

No. Panggil :	eja-21-0411
Nama Orang :	Friedman, Jeffrey A. Lerner, Jennifer S. Zeckhauser, Richard






Penerbitan :	[Place of publication not identified] : Ebsco - NAtional Security and Crime, 2017

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Abstrak	National security is one of many fields where experts make vague prob ability assessments when evaluating high-stakes decisions. This practice has always been controversial, and it is often justified on the grounds that making probability assessments too precise could bias analysts or decision makers. Yet these claims have rarely been submitted to rigorous testing. In this paper, we specify behavioral concerns about probabilistic precision into falsifiable hypotheses which we evaluate through survey experiments involving national security professionals. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find that decision makers responding to quantitative probability assess ments are less willing to support risky actions and more receptive to gathering additional information. Yet we also find that when respondents estimate probabilities themselves, quantification magnifies overconfidence, particularly among low-performing assessors. These results hone wide-ranging concerns about probabilistic precision into a specific and previously undocumented bias that training may be able to correct.Assessment of threat to national security from cbrn terrorism assessment of threat to national security from cbrn terrorism
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Kata Kunci
ISSN
Tahun Terbit	2017
No. Induk	eja-21-0411
Entri Sumber Data	Ebsco - NAtional Security and Crime
Entri Utama Nama orang	Friedman, Jeffrey A.; Lerner, Jennifer S.; Zeckhauser, Richard
Volume, Nomor, Tahun dan Hlm.
Subjek Topik
Barcode	eja-21-0411
Judul Utama	Behavioral Consequences of Probabilistic Precision: Experimental Evidence from National Security Professionals
Kode Bahasa	eng
Sumber Koleksi	Perpustakaan Nasional